The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors and Production Lags on the U.S. Beef Export Market (2010-2020)

Project overview

About this research

This honors economics paper studies the relationship between exchange rates, feed prices, and U.S. beef export prices using monthly data from 2010 to 2020. It uses multiple linear regression with BLS and FRED measures and compares an immediate model with a four-month feed-cost lag. The paper reports different exchange-rate associations across markets and a limited relationship with lagged feed costs. It also discusses omitted variables and the need to extend the analysis to more recent trade conditions.

The question

How are exchange rates and domestic feed costs associated with U.S. beef export prices, and does a four-month feed-price lag change the relationship?

The approach

How I explored it

Multiple linear regression using monthly BLS and FRED data for 2010–2020, comparing an immediate model with a model that applies a four-month lag to corn and soybean price measures.

Conceptual outline of the models discussed in the paper.

What the paper discusses

Ideas & findings

• The paper reports differing exchange-rate associations across markets, including a negative broad-dollar coefficient.
• It reports no strong relationship between the lagged feed-price measures and the export price index in its model.
• It discusses the limits of its time period and omitted variables, and proposes extending the analysis to more recent years.